1. Tuesday – JPY Interest Rate Decision @ 4:00am
2. Wednesday – CAD GDP (m/m) @ 1:30pm
3. Wednesday – US Interest Rate Decision @ 7:00pm
4. Thursday – GBP Interest Rate Decision @ 12:00pm
5. Friday – AUD Retail Sales (m/m) @ 2:30am
6. Friday – US Non Farm Payrolls @ 1:30pm
JAPAN INTEREST RATE DECISION- The interest rate decision for Japan is scheduled for release on Tuesday. The Bank of Japan already endorses the loosest monetary policy in the developed world by committing to keep the 10-year yields depressed and with a negative interest rate. The rate is expected to remain unchanged at -0.1%. The BOJ would like to add stimulus to match its global peers. However, division within the Tokyo-based institution and a limited set of remaining tools may limit any action now. Any surprise increase or decrease in the rate will have effect on the Japanese yen.
CANADA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - Canada will release its gross domestic figure for month of month on Friday. The gross domestic figure is projected to increase by 0.1% which is lower than the 0.3% in the prior month. A better than projected estimate would be positive for the CAD while a worse than projected estimate would be negative for Loonie.
US INTEREST RATE DECISION - The United nation will release its interest rate figure on Wednesday. Markets are already pricing in two cuts this year with the first one coming in the July meeting. The Fed is expected to cut rate by 25bp from the prior 2.50%. There are two main reasons for the cuts. The first is weak inflation. The Fed has distorted its bearing that weak price expansion in the first quarter was only “momentary” and is now anxious about reaching its 2% target. The second reason is global trade tensions, which diffuse the outlook. A dovish statement will weaken the dollar while a hawkish statement will strengthen the greenback.
UK Interest Rate Decision- The United Kingdom will release its interest rate decision on Thursday. The market expects the BOE to leave rate unchanged at 0.75%. Should the rate remain unchanged and the overall market is correct and the BOE remain on hold, the market will turn its attention to the accompanying statement. A hawkish statement will strengthen the pound while a dovish statement will weaken the pound.
AUSTRALIA RETAIL SALES m/m - The Australian retail sales is scheduled to be released on Friday. It is expected to show the Australian economy expanded by 0.3% m/m for the month of June. A better than projected estimate would be positive for the Aussie while a worse than projected estimate would be negative for Aussie.
US CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS - The US Non Farm Payrolls is scheduled to be released on Friday. The US economy is projected to show moderation in job growth at 165k in July after a sharp increase of 224,000 jobs in June. An overall positive bias in the US employment, average earnings and unemployment rate should see USD strengthen, providing a USD long opportunity. Conversely, an overall negative bias should result in USD weakness, presenting a short opportunity.